Because it all happens in the open, Iowans are able to try to persuade others to switch their support. Iowa has 1, precinct caucuses plus nearly "satellite" caucuses for Iowans scattered around the country, along with some taking place internationally.
After the second phase is done, support for each candidate is tallied again. The number of delegates each candidate receives is ultimately based on the number of supporters each candidate has once the nonviable contenders are eliminated.
The Iowa caucus is important because it is the first time that voters around the country see how the candidates fare in a real contest, rather than just in polling averages. But the state's voters do tend to pick the same candidate who eventually wins the Democratic nomination. In fact, the last Democrat to win the Iowa caucus but lose the nomination was an Iowan: Sen. Tom Harkin, who won the caucus in after his rivals did not seriously contest it. Bill Clinton, then governor of Arkansas, eventually won the party nomination while Harkin dropped out in March.
Iowa is not as predictive of the eventual president or of Republican nominees. Only former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Obama have won the presidency after winning the Iowa caucus in cycles dating to Clinton remains the only person in the modern era to have won the presidency despite losing both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, which is traditionally the second contest of the race.
Among Republicans, the winners of the last three Iowa caucuses have failed to secure their party's nomination.
Ted Cruz of Texas won in , former Sen. But polling in a caucus state is extremely difficult for many reasons—not the least of which is the fact that the time commitment to vote is so much longer and more onerous than stopping by your polling place on the way to pick up the kids from basketball practice.
Many outcomes could upset the expectations. For instance, what if Senator Amy Klobuchar, who runs best among those who are not in the top tier, makes a surprisingly strong showing and gets herself into the top tier? Or what if Senator Elizabeth Warren recovers from her months-long slump she was leading the field in late October and finishes in first or second place? Conventional wisdom over the years has held that there are three tickets out of Iowa. That may not be true this year if the four candidates all finish within a few percentage points of each other.
On Monday night and early Tuesday morning of next week the most important number will probably be the first expression of presidential preference. But by midday Tuesday and into Wednesday a consensus will likely form around the winner of the expectations game.
And that person may or may not be the person who actually won the first vote. Related Books. Primary Politics By Elaine C. More on U. So yes, the caucus-goers at this individual site will be fighting for tiny pieces of a fraction of a state delegate. Simple, right? The funny or perhaps maddening aspect to all this is that the Iowa caucus results barely matter to the true way Democrats choose their nominee: national convention delegates. This year, Iowa has 41 of those pledged delegates — about 1 percent of the national total.
It would barely matter even if a candidate did, because the overall number at stake is so small. But the state delegate equivalent formula means that discrepancies from the vote total may — will — be introduced in each those 1,plus precincts.
It could all result in a muddled mess. If a candidate gets the most votes but not the most state delegate equivalents, he or she will surely try to claim victory, with good reason. For Democrats hoping to winnow their field and start to coalesce around a candidate, that might be unpleasant. But for those who have long believed Iowa has far too much influence on the nominating process, an incoherent outcome could actually be a good thing.
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Please consider making a contribution to Vox today to help us keep our work free for all. Cookie banner We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Reddit Pocket Flipboard Email. Michael B. In brief, the numbers that Iowa Democrats will report on caucus night are: 1 The pre-realignment vote total: This is the initial tally of how many people prefer each candidate at each of the more than 1, individual caucus sites added together for a statewide total.
How the Iowa caucuses actually work: Vote-counting edition Members of the audience listen to event organizers during the start of a mock caucus event on January 28, , in Mason City, Iowa.
How the Iowa caucuses actually work: Delegate-counting edition Now, when delegates come in is when it gets really confusing. Each individual precinct caucus will elect a certain preset number of county convention delegates to go to one of the 99 county conventions in Iowa.
Each county gets to determine the size of its convention. So, for example, Story County and Pottawattamie County have similarly sized populations, but the former will have county convention delegates and the latter will have There will be 11, county delegates overall. Each county also has a preset number of state delegates it will be able to send to the Iowa Democratic convention. And the number of state delegates a county gets depends on how many votes its attendees cast for the Democratic nominees in the most recent gubernatorial and presidential race, averaged.
So, for example, Story and Pottawattamie counties have similarly sized populations, but Story had more Democratic voters, so it gets 83 state delegates and Pottawattamie gets There will be 2, state delegates overall. These are the delegates Iowa will send to the Democratic National Convention. This year, it will send 41 pledged delegates who are bound to support to specific candidates based on the caucus results.
To get the county convention delegate result, then, you apply the final vote total proportionally and round where necessary.
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